Value investing merupakan salah satu cara untuk memilih saham terbaik
Sejak 1930 Benjamin Graham dan David Dodd, finance professors at Columbia University, meletakkan dasar bagi “framework for value investing”

Konsepnya sesungguhnya sedehana …. carilah perusahaan yang bertransaksi dibawah nilainya….

Para value investor akan memilih saham yang kuat secara : fundamentals – termasuk earnings, dividends, book value, dan cash flow – yang dijual pada “bargain price”

Para value investor mencari perusahaan yang “undervalued” yang dengan sendirinya mempunyai kesempatan untuk meningkatkan harga saham ketika pasar melakukan koreksi valuation
 
Value, Not Junk!

Jangan salah … Value investing bukan berarti memborong saham yang lagi turun harganya (murah)

Value investors telah melakukan penelitian secara seksama dan merasa pasti bahwa perusahaan tersebut walaupun harga sahamnya rendah akan tetapi mempunyai kwalitas tinggi

Harus pandai pandai memisahkan antara perusahaan yang harga sahamnya rendah tapi berkwaltas dengan perusahaan yang lagi turun harga sahamnya
 
Ajukanlah pertanyaan …apakah secara fundamental cukup sehat untuk menghargai lebih dari $10

Value investing selalu membandingkan harga saham saat ini dengan nilai intriksi dan bukan harga historik

Apabila sebuah perusahaan yang harga sahamnya tahun lalu $25 dan tiba tiba harga sahamnya turun menjadi $10 bukanlah berarti bahwa harga sahamnya merupakan sebuah harga bargain.

Satu satunya yang diketahui adalah bahwa perusahaan tersebut sekarang lebih murah…siapa tahu penyebabnya adalah masalah didalam perusahaan
 
Value Investing at Work

Contoh terbaik bahwa value investing dapat berhasil adalah yang dicapai oleh Warren Buffett
Strateginya membuat harga saham Berkshire Hathaway yang merupakan holding companynya dari $12/saham di tahun 1967 menjadi $70,900 pada tahun 2002.
Perusahaannya menggalahkan performa S&P 500’s dengan 13.02% rata rata per tahun sehingga sukses storinya dijadikan dasar prinsip value investing principles (See Warren Buffett: How He Does It.)
 
Buying a Business, not a Stock

  • Pada dasarnya value investing melihat saham sebagai batu loncatan untuk menjadi pemilik sebuah perusahaan
  • Value investor mendapatkan keuntungan dengan melakukan investasi pada quality companies dan bukan dari trading…dasar pemikirannya adalah “nilai asset” dan tidak terpengaruh dengan:

    1) market volatility

    2) pergerakan harga saham sehari hari yang pada ahirnya tidak mempengaruhi nilai perusahaan pada jangka panjang
     
    Sebuah Kontradiksi

    Teori efficient market hypothesis (EMH) mengklaim bahwa harga sudah memberi indikasi semua informasi dan dengan demikian telah memperlihatkan nilai intrisik perusahaan

    Value investor memperhatikan keadaan inefficiency yaitu ketika pasar memberikan incorrect price pada saham

    Value investors juga menolak anggapan bahwa high beta atau volatility, or standard deviation) necessarily merupakann risky investment

    ketika sebuah perusahaan dengan harga $20/saham secara intrinsik akan tetapi dijual $15 akan menarik bagi value investors.,,,andaikan hargany jatuh ke $10/saham maka perusahaan akan mengalam peningkatan beta yaitu peningkatan risiko
    Apabila value investor tetap berasumsi bahwa harga intrisiknya $20/saham maka penurunan harga dilihat sebagai kesempatan yang baik >>> semakin baik ..semakin kecil risikonya

    Beta tinggi tidaklah membuat takut value investors selama mereka jakin pada intrinsic valuation

    Peningkatan downside volatility malah merupakan pertanda baik
     
    Screening for Value Stocks
    Now that we have a solid understanding of what value investing is and what it is not, let’s get into some of the qualities of value stocks.

    Qualitative aspects of value stocks:

    Where are value stocks found? – Everywhere. Value stocks can be found trading on the NYSE, Nasdaq, AMEX, over the counter, on the FTSE, Nikkei and so on.
    a) In what industries are value stocks located? – Value stocks can be located in any industry, including energy, finance and even technology (contrary to popular belief).
    b) In what industries are value stocks most often located? – Although value stocks can be located anywhere, they are often located in industries that have recently fallen on hard times, or are currently facing market overreaction to a piece of news affecting the industry in the short term. For example, the auto industry’s cyclical nature allows for periods of undervaluation of companies such as Ford or GM.
    Can value companies be those that have just reached new lows? – Definitely, although we must re-emphasize that the “cheapness” of a company is relative to intrinsic value. A company that has just hit a new 12-month low or is at half of a 12-month high may warrant further investigation.

    Here is a breakdown of some of the numbers value investors use as rough guides for picking stocks. Keep in mind that these are guidelines, not hard-and-fast rules:

    Share price should be no more than two-thirds of intrinsic worth.
    Look at companies with P/E ratios at the lowest 10% of all equity securities.
    PEG should be less than one.
    Stock price should be no more than tangible book value.
    There should be no more debt than equity (i.e. D/E ratio < 1).
    Current assets should be two times current liabilities.
    Dividend yield should be at least two-thirds of the long-term AAA bond yield.
    Earnings growth should be at least 7% per annum compounded over the last 10 years.

    The P/E and PEG Ratios
    Contrary to popular belief, value investing is not simply about investing in low P/E stocks. It's just that stocks which are undervalued will often reflect this undervaluation through a low P/E ratio, which should simply provide a way to compare companies within the same industry. For example, if the average P/E of the technology consulting industry is 20, a company trading in that industry at 15 times earnings should sound some bells in the heads of value investors.

    Another popular metric for valuing a company's intrinsic value is the PEG ratio, calculated as a stock's P/E ratio divided by its projected year-over-year earnings growth rate. In other words, the ratio measures how cheap the stock is while taking into account its earnings growth. If the company's PEG ratio is less than one, it is considered to be undervalued.

    Narrowing It Down Even Further
    One well-known and accepted method of picking value stocks is the net-net method. This method states that if a company is trading at two-thirds of its current assets, no other gauge of worth is necessary. The reasoning behind this is simple: if a company is trading at this level, the buyer is essentially getting all the permanent assets of the company (including property, equipment, etc) and the company's intangible assets (mainly goodwill, in most cases) for free! Unfortunately, companies trading this low are few and far between.

    The Margin of Safety
    A discussion of value investing would not be complete without mentioning the use of a margin of safety, a technique which is simple yet very effective. Consider a real-life example of a margin of safety. Say you're planning a pyrotechnics show, which will include flames and explosions. You have concluded with a high degree of certainty that it's perfectly safe to stand 100 feet from the center of the explosions. But to be absolutely sure no one gets hurt, you implement a margin of safety by setting up barriers 125 feet from the explosions.

    This use of a margin of safety works similarly in value investing. It's simply the practice of leaving room for error in your calculations of intrinsic value. A value investor may be fairly confident that a company has an intrinsic value of $30 per share. But in case his or her calculations are a little too optimistic, he or she creates a margin of safety/error by using the $26 per share in their scenario analysis. The investor may find that at $15 the company is still an attractive investment, or he or she may find that at $24, the company is not attractive enough. If the stock's intrinsic value is lower than the investor estimated, the margin of safety would help prevent this investor from paying too much for the stock.

    Conclusion
    Value investing is not as sexy as some other styles of investing; it relies on a strict screening process. But just remember, there's nothing boring about outperforming the S&P by 13% over a 40-year span!

    Next: Stock-Picking Strategies: Growth Investing »

    Table of Contents

    Stock-Picking Strategies: Introduction
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Fundamental Analysis
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Qualitative Analysis
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Value Investing
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Growth Investing
    Stock-Picking Strategies: GARP Investing
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Income Investing
    Stock-Picking Strategies: CAN SLIM
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Dogs of the Dow
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Technical Analysis
    Stock-Picking Strategies: Conclusion

    Filed Under: Beginning Investor, Bill Gates Options, Options, Beginning Investor, Bill Gates

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